Job Market Paper:

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This paper revisits the evidence on the intergenerational effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on the adult income of individuals whose families received the tax credit during childhood. I build on Bastian and Michelmore (2018) and test new sources of variation and new multigenerational data. Identification exploits an instrument that draws variation from formulaic changes across states and years. The results show that tax credit transfers during childhood increase adult income between 1.5 and 3.4 percent. The effect is concentrated on transfers received between 0 and 5 years old and, contrary to previous studies, transfers during adolescence have no impact on income. The intergenerational impact of the tax credit is driven by children of mothers working the fewest hours in the distribution, suggesting that work conditions offset the benefits of intergenerational poverty alleviation. The paper concludes that intergenerational poverty alleviation requires carefully accounting for the link between work incentives and the development of children.

Published:

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Lower United States dependency on crude imports has caused shipments from Latin America and Africa to fall. Asia has also made efforts to diversify the sources of its supply to meet its energy demands and thereby reduce exposure to the Middle East. These developments have implications for the projects aiming to increase Latin American and African participation in the Asian market. In this context, this article examines the significance of the expansion of Asian funding linked to the energy sector, identifies opportunities for complementarity between regions, and explores examples linked to the development of oil projects in Venezuela and the use of African crudes as input, as well as the interest of Latin American companies in developing projects in Africa. 

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 This study investigates the impact of slum upgrading programs on elementary school attendance, a strong predictor of dropout and adult outcomes. Slum upgrading programs are interventions in impoverished areas that involve building housing, roads, sewerage systems, and installing public lighting. Using administrative data on Uruguayan students, we examine the effects of slum upgrading programs on school attendance. The study employs a regression discontinuity design based on the eligibility rule that considers a slum eligible for the program when it has 40 or more dwelling units. The results show that students exposed to slum upgrading programs had 28 fewer absences (16 percent of the school year or 70 percent of the total missed days that qualify a student as having insufficient attendance), and lower probability of being recurrent absentees. This study provides insights into the impact of slum upgrading programs on human capital accumulation among low-income children.

Work in Progress

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The US social safety net tends to require employment to households. The labor market interactions of social programs require a careful assessment of economic incidence. The Earned Income Tax Credit, one of the largest conditional cash transfers in the US, is generally believed to increase the labor supply of women. This paper studies the EITC’s labor market and wage effects using establishment surveys. The empirical strategy leverages state roll-out of EITC supplements and variation in exposure across different industries and occupations. The results show that wages experience a transitory drop (between 6 and 12%) but there are no changes in employment or the number of establishments reported by firms. Industries that are heavily exposed to the EITC report larger wage declines after state rollout in the program, but employment and business dynamics are unresponsive. This paper argues that willingness to work may increase but tight labor markets allow employers to capture part of the social program. The paper documents labor market effects across industries and occupations, suggesting that the EITC program is concentrated in some markets.

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Using Google Trends data, this study leverages high-frequency unstructured data to characterize tourism demand in the Andean countries. The paper explores real-time data to monitor trends in the tourism industry, leveraging language models to identify suitable search terms. The document presents a methodology based on keywords related to tourism products in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela between 2010 and 2023. Results show decline and recovery trends in the interest in traveling to these destinations. Additionally, trends for local tourist destinations and specific products are analyzed. The real-time data-driven results can guide industrial policies in the region, emphasizing the importance of understanding and adapting to changing dynamics of tourism demand in the Andean Region.

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