Working Papers:

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This paper revisits the evidence on the intergenerational effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on the adult income of individuals whose families received the tax credit during childhood. I build on Bastian and Michelmore (2018) and test new sources of variation and new multigenerational data. Identification exploits an instrument that draws variation from formulaic changes across states and years. The results show that tax credit transfers during childhood increase adult income between 1.5 and 3.4 percent. The effect is concentrated on transfers received between 0 and 5 years old and, contrary to previous studies, transfers during adolescence have no impact on income. The intergenerational impact of the tax credit is driven by children of mothers working the fewest hours in the distribution, suggesting that work conditions offset the benefits of intergenerational poverty alleviation. The paper concludes that intergenerational poverty alleviation requires carefully accounting for the link between work incentives and the development of children.

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This paper presents novel evidence on the impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on wages, employment, and the number of establishments across industries and occupations using establishment survey data. Despite extensive research on the EITC's effects using household surveys, questions remain about how the program shapes firm-level labor market outcomes. I exploit variation from the staggered implementation of state EITC supplements and differences in exposure across industries/occupations. The analysis finds that wages decrease by 8\% in exposed industries and occupations after EITC enactment, but this effect is transitory. There is little evidence of changes in employment levels or number of establishments. The wage effects concentrate in service industries and occupations. While employment effects are inconclusive, the significant temporary wage reductions underscore the program's influence on labor markets. The paper provides new insights into heterogeneous labor market responses to the EITC across different industries and occupations using previously unexplored data sources.

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 We study the relationship between police departments acquiring military hardware and the failure to disclose the killings of civilians in reports to the federal government. While military hardware may be an input to citizen deaths - there should not be a direct effect on the non-reporting of those deaths. We examine the timing of non-disclosed deaths and the acquisition of military hardware, and find evidence supporting both adverse selection and moral hazard. These results call into question the interpretation of previous results, and finds that the federal government has failed to monitor the local law enforcement agencies to whom it gave lethal capabilities.

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Using Google Trends data, this study leverages high-frequency unstructured data to characterize tourism demand in the Andean countries. The paper explores real-time data to monitor trends in the tourism industry, leveraging language models to identify suitable search terms. The document presents a methodology based on keywords related to tourism products in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela between 2010 and 2023. Results show decline and recovery trends in the interest in traveling to these destinations. Additionally, trends for local tourist destinations and specific products are analyzed. The real-time data-driven results can guide industrial policies in the region, emphasizing the importance of understanding and adapting to changing dynamics of tourism demand in the Andean Region.

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 This study investigates the impact of slum upgrading programs on elementary school attendance, a strong predictor of dropout and adult outcomes. Slum upgrading programs are interventions in impoverished areas that involve building housing, roads, sewerage systems, and installing public lighting. Using administrative data on Uruguayan students, we examine the effects of slum upgrading programs on school attendance. The study employs a regression discontinuity design based on the eligibility rule that considers a slum eligible for the program when it has 40 or more dwelling units. The results show that students exposed to slum upgrading programs had 28 fewer absences (16 percent of the school year or 70 percent of the total missed days that qualify a student as having insufficient attendance), and lower probability of being recurrent absentees. This study provides insights into the impact of slum upgrading programs on human capital accumulation among low-income children.

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Lower United States dependency on crude imports has caused shipments from Latin America and Africa to fall. Asia has also made efforts to diversify the sources of its supply to meet its energy demands and thereby reduce exposure to the Middle East. These developments have implications for the projects aiming to increase Latin American and African participation in the Asian market. In this context, this article examines the significance of the expansion of Asian funding linked to the energy sector, identifies opportunities for complementarity between regions, and explores examples linked to the development of oil projects in Venezuela and the use of African crudes as input, as well as the interest of Latin American companies in developing projects in Africa. 

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