Job Market Paper
"Revisiting the Intergenerational Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit on the Long-Run Income of Children."
(Under Review) (Pre-Print) (Current version).
Abstract: This paper revisits the evidence on the intergenerational effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on the adult income of individuals whose families received the tax credit during childhood. I build on Bastian and Michelmore (2018) and test new sources of variation and new multigenerational data. Identification exploits an instrument that draws variation from formulaic changes across states and years. The results show that tax credit transfers during childhood increase adult income between 1.5 and 3.4 percent. The effect is concentrated on transfers received between 0 and 5 years old and, contrary to previous studies, transfers during adolescence have no impact on income. The intergenerational impact of the tax credit is driven by children of mothers working the fewest hours in the distribution, suggesting that work conditions offset the benefits of intergenerational poverty alleviation. The paper concludes that intergenerational poverty alleviation requires carefully accounting for the link between work incentives and the development of children.
(2023 Update!) "Do Slum Upgrading Programs Impact School Attendance?"
with Wladimir Zanoni and Paloma Acevedo (2023) in Economics of Education Review.
Abstract: This study investigates the impact of slum upgrading programs on elementary school attendance, a strong predictor of dropout and adult outcomes. Slum upgrading programs are interventions in impoverished areas that involve building housing, roads, sewerage systems, and installing public lighting. Using administrative data on Uruguayan students, we examine the effects of slum upgrading programs on school attendance. The study employs a regression discontinuity design based on the eligibility rule that considers a slum eligible for the program when it has 40 or more dwelling units. The results show that students exposed to slum upgrading programs had 28 fewer absences (16 percent of the school year or 70 percent of the total missed days that qualify a student as having insufficient attendance), and lower probability of being recurrent absentees. This study provides insights into the impact of slum upgrading programs on human capital accumulation among low-income children.
"Desafíos petroleros para América Latina y África ante la expansión asiática / Oil challenges for Latin America and Africa given the Asian expansion."
with Igor Hernández (2016) in Revista CIDOB d'Afers Internacionals.
Abstract: Lower United States dependency on crude imports has caused shipments from Latin America and Africa to fall. Asia has also made efforts to diversify the sources of its supply to meet its energy demands and thereby reduce exposure to the Middle East. These developments have implications for the projects aiming to increase Latin American and African participation in the Asian market. In this context, this article examines the significance of the expansion of Asian funding linked to the energy sector, identifies opportunities for complementarity between regions, and explores examples linked to the development of oil projects in Venezuela and the use of African crudes as input, as well as the interest of Latin American companies in developing projects in Africa.
Work in Progress
"Police Militarization and Reporting Behavior" with Matt Harris and Eunsik Chang.
Business as Usual? Workfare and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit
"Regional Economic Outlook." (2021) by Lawrence M. Kessler, Vickie C. Cunningham, Diego A. Guerrero, and Timothy A. Kuhn. Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.
"College Enrollment and the Access to Opportunity in St. Cloud, Minnesota." (2018) by Monica Garcia-Perez, Diego A. Guerrero, and Robert Johnson. Access to Opportunity Program
"Energy in Figures 2014. Oil and Gas Sector." by Igor Hernandez, Armando Romero, Diego A. Guerrero, Maria Alejandra De Francesco. Center for International Energy and Environment IESA.
"The Case of Oil Income Management in Venezuela: Industry Investment versus Social Expenditure." with Armando Romero. Latin American Policy Journal (2016).
"El Petróleo y Venezuela: Algunas cifras relevantes." with Igor Hernández. Debates IESA (2015).
"Petroleum challenges for Latin America and Africa in light of the Asian expansion." with Igor Hernández. Reconfiguration of the Global South (2016).